It’s not all plain sailing for air cargo this year. The decline in demand for air cargo will slow to 3.8% this year, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), but as passenger flights surge, bellyhold capacity grows, and global trade slows, airline cargo revenues will It plummeted 33% to $142.3 billion.
More troublingly, current volumes are 5.3% below 2019 lows and will end the year 5.5% below the four-year benchmark at 240 million freight tonne kilometers (CTK), suggesting market conditions are in The second half of the year, the traditional peak period for cargo volumes, deteriorated slightly.
IATA had estimated that airlines would transport 63.7 million tons of cargo this year, compared with 67.8 million tons in 2019. Although cargo volumes are lower than before the epidemic, airlines’ cargo revenue will still be well above the $100 billion before the epidemic due to higher service fees due to labor shortages and increased fuel costs.
Air cargo demand is expected to fall by 3.8% this year, an improvement from last year’s 8% decline. However, some analysts pointed out that the temporary signs of stability are more likely to be due to China’s economic control period in 2022 rather than improving demand this year.
In addition, IATA stated that its estimate of airline cargo revenue in 2023 has been revised down from US$149.4 billion to US$142.3 billion, a decrease of 31.4% compared to 2022. On the other hand, projected cargo volumes are broadly in line with levels forecast in early 2023, falling 4% to 57.8 million tonnes. The decline in air cargo revenue was primarily due to lower freight prices rather than lower cargo volumes.
Chuck Clowdis, managing director of analytics firm Transport Logistics Group, said the AirBaltic index edged higher, up 0.7%, but it was too early to expect a critical recovery. Shanghai’s weekly data increased slightly month-on-month, but still fell 22.5% year-on-year. Overall, air cargo owners have had a fairly favorable year.
On the positive side, air cargo service providers continue to expand, merge, and acquire new and modified equipment, which is a good sign of confidence in the market. It should be noted that cargo theft often occurs in truck freight. Although the security of air cargo will be stricter, the increase in theft rate is a problem that cannot be ignored.
Post time: May-06-2024